"His turn will come," François Bayrou in the hands of the National Rally: Guillaume Daret's political editorial

François Bayrou took office at Matignon with one obsession: to avoid finding himself at the mercy of the National Rally, unlike his predecessor, Michel Barnier. Six months later, however, that's exactly what's happening.

From the moment François Bayrou no longer benefits from the Socialists' life insurance, it is the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella that has the power of life and death over his government. Arithmetic is stronger than politics: the united left has only 192 deputies, far from the 289 needed to pass a motion of censure. The RN is once again the master of the game in this National Assembly.

And worse than the predicted political death, there is the torture of the last straw that the party will indulge in before giving up. If the outcome is in little doubt, the National Rally will choose its moment, and it won't be before the summer. National Front deputies will not vote for the motion of censure that the Socialists will table after the failure of the pensions conference.

"The meeting with censure is in the fall, at budget time. François Bayrou's turn will come (...) He should take this non-censorship as a real warning," says Sébastien Chenu, vice-president of the National Front party. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella believe that this is the moment when priorities are set, symbols of real political choices.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, some RN officials are wondering. Should we take the risk of a possible dissolution again from July 8? Sentenced to ineligibility with immediate execution in the first instance for embezzlement of public funds in the affair of the FN parliamentary assistants, Marine Le Pen, who has appealed, would not be able to run again if new legislative elections were held.

Perhaps worse than falling today, François Bayrou is therefore benefiting from a reprieve granted by the National Rally. A delicate situation in which he placed himself by making several mistakes during the conclave. Without taboo, he said, on age, he quickly ruled out a return to retirement at 62. No government intervention, he promised there too, but with a Prime Minister who pulled out of his hat, in the final days of the conclave, a seniors' bonus that no one wants, neither employers nor unions.

The censorship axe can fall at the slightest measure, the slightest word, the slightest clumsiness that displeases Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. And the situation has never been so precarious for the Prime Minister: